"Facebook is like AOL was when the Internet first started taking off," Stern says of America Online, which is owned by Time Warner. "They keep everything tightly controlled."
Facebook's numbers are impressive. The company says it has 200 million active users, about half of whom log on to the site each day. (Whether that's translating into more profits is hard to answer, since it's a privately held company.) The fastest growing demographic is those 35 years and older. And that could be Facebook's ultimate downfall. As it attracts more users, it loses its cache. Once Grandma's on Facebook, how cool can it be?
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Instead, the buzz that boosted Facebook seems to have migrated to Twitter. But it's hard to look at the examples of MySpace and Facebook without wondering about Twitter's long-term future.
"Remember how you would get a new game at Christmas, play with it every day for a few weeks, and then forget about it?" Stern says. "Twitter is a fine tool, but I think we'll see less usage of it in 18 months or so. People don't genuinely care what others are doing every minute. It's overhyped."
On the surface, MySpace, Facebook and Twitter couldn't look more different. But all three share one trait: They enable users to share information. The basic components of what's being shared -- gossip, birth announcements, photos, insults -- are nothing new.
Sure, they've made communication more immediate and wide-ranging. But none are creating products that improve lives in any measurable way. None are offering services that consumers are willing to pay for.
Buzz may help build a business, but solid relationships are what keep it going. Give your customers something they really need, and they'll remain long after the crowds have moved along to the next hot thing.
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