NEW YORK (MainStreet) How much will home prices rise over 12 months? How about 3.9%? No, it's 6.7%.
Those are the findings of two opinion surveys released last week. Granted, they're not perfect apples-to-apples comparisons, so perhaps the best conclusion is that most everyone expects prices to continue to rise, but not as much as in the past year or so.
The surveys also suggest that consumers are shaking off their concern about the mortgage rate hikes of recent months. Now they seem to be focusing on the fact that rates, while likely to rise, are still low, making this a good time to buy.
The 3.9% figure comes from Fannie Mae's quarterly survey of consumers, who were asked to predict price increases from this July to next July. The 6.7% prediction comes from economists and other real estate experts polled by Zillow, the market-information firm, and it covers January through December 2013. So it includes some of the rapid appreciation this year before July, figures that aren't part of the Fannie Mae survey.
Both surveys, one of experts and the other of ordinary folk, find that respondents expect the pace of home price gains to slow as mortgage rates rise. In Fannie's survey, 62% said interest rates will rise over the next year, a five-point increase from the previous survey.
"Consumers have taken the interest rate rise in stride. Expectations for continued improvement in housing persist, and sentiment toward the current buying and selling environment is back on track from its dip last month," Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, said in a statement. "These results are consistent with our own analysis of previous housing cycles, which finds that interest rates and home prices are not strongly correlated."