NEW YORK (MainStreet) Batten down the hatches. This could be a bad hurricane season after all. That could have a big impact on more than your vacation plans.
Hurricane Arthur, which blew up the North Carolina coast last week, may change the forecast for this whole year, and that could have a huge economic impact.
The Outer Banks got lucky with Arthur, with local newspapers reporting nominal damage.
But down in Conway, S.C., where Len Pietrafesa has been running the HUGO hurricane outlook study at Coastal Carolina University since last year, Arthur was a wake-up call, and not just because it went right past his house.
Arthur was unprecedented, spawning off the coast of Florida early in the season and becoming a Category 2 hurricane within a few days. Most early season storms start off the coast of Africa and move west, giving people time to prepare.
The storm has forced Pietrafesa's group to re-examine an outlook for a mild season issued right before the storm came in.
When the forecast was issued, Pietrafesa told MainStreet, the center lacked data on global ocean temperatures, which turned out to be 1.3 degrees higher than ever seen for May.
"We didn't know about the 1.3 degree increase, he said. "This is going to be a very warm year, and if it's a warm year there's more energy in the ocean. You put energy into the ocean and you change the atmosphere."
He added, "It could be climate change." Pietrafesa published a paper last year in which he showed ocean and atmospheric temperatures around the world rising about 1 degree since 1880, with all natural variability taken out.
That's less than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently estimated, but it is still significant.
If the hurricane forecast has to be revised it could have a big impact for investors, both in the stock market and in real estate. It could mean less business for tourist destinations along the coast, and damage to resorts and resort communities.